- Tiger Research published its Q4 2025 Bitcoin valuation report on Oct. 23, setting a $200,000 price target based on its TVM methodology.
- The analysis applies a 35% macro adjustment for Fed rate cuts and record $96 trillion global M2 supply alongside $7.8 billion Q3 ETF inflows.
- An October crash of 14% confirmed institutional market control as buyers absorbed the dip, preventing retail-driven collapse patterns.
Tiger Research raised its Bitcoin price target for Q4 2025 to $200,000 in a report published Oct. 23 and updated Nov. 3. The firm’s updated valuation reflects what it describes as favorable macroeconomic conditions and persistent institutional accumulation.
According to Tiger Research’s Q4 2025 Bitcoin valuation report, the target derives from a neutral base price of $154,000, adjusted by a 35% macro premium and a 2% fundamental discount. The macro adjustment accounts for Federal Reserve rate cuts and elevated global liquidity, while the fundamental discount reflects slower network activity in transaction counts and active users.
Federal Reserve Policy and Liquidity Drive Outlook
The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 17 to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%. The report anticipates one to two additional cuts in 2025. Global M2 money supply has reached a record high above $96 trillion, according to the analysis.
Institutional demand remained strong through Q3 2025, with Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds recording $7.8 billion in net inflows. Strategy Inc. acquired 388 BTC between Oct. 13 and Oct. 20, adding to its total holdings of 640,808 BTC. October’s first week alone saw $3.2 billion in ETF inflows.
October Volatility Tests Market Structure
Photo credit: Tiger Research
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,210 on Oct. 6 before experiencing an 18% correction to $104,000. The report attributed the decline to renewed trade tensions between the US and China.
The Oct. 10 crash, which saw a 14% single-day drop, demonstrated what the report characterizes as institutional market dominance. Unlike previous retail-driven markets, institutions purchased the dip, according to the analysis. Strategy acquired 220 BTC on Oct. 13 and an additional 168 BTC on Oct. 20 during this period.
On-Chain Signals and Market Criticism
Photo credit: Tiger Research
The MVRV-Z indicator stood at 2.31, entering what the report describes as “overheated” territory without reaching extreme valuation levels. Bitcoin volatility, measured by the BVIV Index, spiked 41% in September, reflecting heightened market uncertainty.
Economist Peter Schiff labeled Strategy’s Q3 earnings report as “fraud” on Oct. 31, claiming the company’s $2.8 billion net income relies on unrealized Bitcoin profits. Schiff argued that Strategy’s 2025 guidance reflects expectations of price appreciation rather than operational earnings.